Saturday, September 11, 2010

US Department of Energy wants 20% power by wind by 2030

This is an example of the magnitude of the problem with wind power.

http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/20_percent_wind_2.pdf

This report wants the US to achieve 20% of their power by wind within the next 20 years. This is a similar goal for Ontario, though our size is obviously smaller, the scale of the ramp up would be relatively the same.

The goal is to have 230gigawatts of power by wind. What is interesting is the report does not note the number of turbines needed, nor the costs. It's simple enough to do.

The current output is 11.4gigawatts of capacity. Understand that capacity is not physical output, it's name plate. Turbines operate at less than 18% name plate 50% of the time.

To achieve that 230gW from the current 11.4gW would require a growth rate of construction of 16%. Now compare that to the US economy barely at 1% right now, 3% before the recession.

But this is the numbers:


Year

GW

1.5mW turbines per year

@18% name plate

3mW turbines per year

@18% name plate

1.5mW per day

3mW per day

@ $3million for each 1.5mW

2008

11.4

7,600

41,800

3,800

20,900

115

57

$ 125,400,000,000

2009

13.2

8,816

48,488

4,408

24,244

133

66

$ 145,464,000,000

2010

15.3

10,227

56,246

5,113

28,123

154

77

$ 168,738,240,000

2011

17.8

11,863

65,245

5,931

32,623

179

89

$ 195,736,358,400

2012

20.6

13,761

75,685

6,880

37,842

207

104

$ 227,054,175,744

2013

23.9

15,963

87,794

7,981

43,897

241

120

$ 263,382,843,863

2014

27.8

18,517

101,841

9,258

50,921

279

140

$ 305,524,098,881

2015

32.2

21,479

118,136

10,740

59,068

324

162

$ 354,407,954,702

2016

37.4

24,916

137,038

12,458

68,519

375

188

$ 411,113,227,454

2017

43.4

28,903

158,964

14,451

79,482

436

218

$ 476,891,343,847

2018

50.3

33,527

184,398

16,763

92,199

505

253

$ 553,193,958,863

2019

58.3

38,891

213,902

19,446

106,951

586

293

$ 641,704,992,281

2020

67.7

45,114

248,126

22,557

124,063

680

340

$ 744,377,791,046

2021

78.5

52,332

287,826

26,166

143,913

789

394

$ 863,478,237,613

2022

91.1

60,705

333,878

30,353

166,939

915

457

$ 1,001,634,755,631

2023

105.6

70,418

387,299

35,209

193,649

1,061

531

$ 1,161,896,316,532

2024

122.5

81,685

449,267

40,842

224,633

1,231

615

$ 1,347,799,727,177

2025

142.1

94,754

521,149

47,377

260,575

1,428

714

$ 1,563,447,683,525

2026

164.9

109,915

604,533

54,958

302,267

1,656

828

$ 1,813,599,312,890

2027

191.3

127,502

701,258

63,751

350,629

1,921

961

$ 2,103,775,202,952

2028

221.9

147,902

813,460

73,951

406,730

2,229

1,114

$ 2,440,379,235,424

2029

257.3

171,566

943,613

85,783

471,807

2,585

1,293

$ 2,830,839,913,092

2030

298.5

199,017

1,094,591

99,508

547,296

2,999

1,499

$ 3,283,774,299,187

Total:

1,395,371

7,674,538

697,685

3,837,269

$ 23,023,613,669,104


Note the last line under the number of 1.5mW turbines needed assuming an 18% capacity factor (50% of the time). That's 7.7 MILLION turbines. The per day, look at the year 2030. That's 3000 turbines completed and opperational EVER DAY for that last year. And the total costs at $3M each? That's $23 TRILLION!

So anyone wish to make a bet the US can do this?

Wish to bet we can in Ontario?

Oh, but someone will complain. That 230gW is CAPACITY the US wants. No, they want 20% of their POWER to come from wind, so in fact to get that means a capacify factor that adds up to 230gW. Hence the larger number of turbines. Othewise what's the point of putting all that in place for only 18% of that 20% they are targeting?

Now, add to this these new reports on what is happening in the EU with wind and solar. Read them, you will be very interested in this as this is the path Ontario is on right now.

Wind Energy’s House of Cards
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/5131/Wind-Energys-House-of-Cards

WIND ENERGY THE CASE OF DENMARK
http://www.cepos.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/Arkiv/PDF/Wind_energy_-_the_case_of_Denmark.pdf

Germany's Solar Cell Promotion: Dark Clouds on the Horizon
http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_08_040.pdf

Note this at the end:

From a social welfare perspective, we therefore recommend the rapid reduction of
these subsidies, taking account of recent estimates of annual reductions in
production cost, which are on the order of 12% to 15%.

They are recommending the German Government stop their FIT program. Yet we are racing ahead with one.

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